The automotive reality in Russia is rapidly changing due to the crisis. Opel leaves, there will be no mass models of Chevrolet, SsangYong supply is suspended. What is bad about it and is there anything good about this situation?
There will not be enough space for everyone on the automobile market in crisis Russia. This was clear last year when Seat left and Dodge stopped selling. Analysts predicted problems for the French from Peugeot and Citroen, were not sure about the future of Suzuki and Subaru.
But the first major player to surrender was General Motors. By the end of 2015, the concern will curtail its activities in Russia, and we will lose all Opel and Chevrolet cars. Only the Cadillac brand and three Chevrolet models will remain: Tahoe, Camaro, Corvette. Well, and the Chevrolet Niva, because the SUV is produced at a joint venture in Togliatti.
The day after GM, the Korean manufacturer SsangYong announced a freeze on the supply of cars to Russia. All companies made this decision due to low sales. For Opel in January-February 2015, they fell by 82% compared to the same period in 2014. Chevrolet has 71%. SsangYong lost 61% of customers. Such a fall is significantly lower than the market - after all, the total volume of passenger car sales in Russia since the beginning of the year has decreased not so catastrophically - by 37.9%.
And the situation will not improve in the near future. Jörg Schreiber, chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee, says that "the next few months will be very difficult, sales have not yet reached their bottom." The Central Bank predicts the bottom of the crisis for the first quarter of 2016. After him, according to the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Elvira Nabiullina, recovery growth should begin. But apparently, not all automakers believe this prediction.
Otherwise, why would GM invest $ 600 million in winding up its business in Russia? After all, this is twice as much investment in the plant in St. Petersburg, which will now be mothballed. The cost of leaving the market is comparable to GM's total investment in Russia. American businessmen would hardly make such an expensive decision if they believed that our economy would recover in 2016. So it's doubtful that GM's mainstream models will be making a comeback anytime soon.
The concern has already begun to negotiate with its employees about dismissal. And the cars remaining in the warehouses, of which there are quite a lot, are sold by GM at huge discounts. You can buy them without fear - the CEO of the Opel Group Karl-Thomas Neumann assures that "we will continue to fulfill the warranty obligations, as well as the supply of spare parts and service."
Opel, Chevrolet and SsangYong are far from the only customer loser earlier this year. Demand for Ford cars fell by 70%, Honda - by 86%, Peugeot - by 81%, Citroen - by 78%. These companies, however, do not seem to be going to leave the Russian market.
And the market share of Opel and Chevrolet will be taken by those who produce cars with a high level of localization in Russia. The best localization for those foreign cars that were developed specifically for the Russian consumer. These are, for example, Kia and Hyundai, Nissan Sentra and Tiida from Izhevsk.
Unfortunately, all well-localized vehicles are offered with a limited range of engines, transmissions and options. They do not have any super-modern high-tech equipment - it is simply unprofitable to supply it to Russia, especially now. At the same time, manufacturers refuse to import into Russia certain versions of foreign-made cars that are not in great demand.
So it turns out that the crisis will seriously limit our choice of car. The country's car fleet will become more and more monotonous. Roughly speaking, only those well-localized mass models and the premium segment will remain in Russia.
Expensive cars are now in great demand. Sales of Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Lexus, Porsche are growing. These companies raised prices on a par with others, catching up with the exchange rates. But the extra 200-300 thousand rubles for their clients does not make the weather, so wealthy people continue to buy cars.
